(lamma888.blogspot.com 2009-2-25 文章)
簡單的計算。
現在只剩 4 個人,頭 3 位可以得到入場劵,大家籌碼差不多,基本計算你有 75% 機會得到入場劵,現在有人 all
in 而你在 bb,你在這手必須要75%勝率才可以跟,就是 KK 都很勉強,奇怪的是常常見到有人跟那些 50/50
的牌,於是你可以不用做什麼便贏了。
舉一個實戰例子吧!
Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No
Limit Hold'em Tournament - t625/t1250 Blinds + t150 - 4 players -
View
hand 48024The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.comHero
(BTN): t78397 M = 31.68sari66 (SB): t8951
M = 3.62
berenyo (BB): t32957 M
= 13.32Beuber (CO): t89981 M = 36.36
Pre
Flop: (t2475) Hero is BTN with 6
6
1 fold,
Hero raises to t3750,
1 fold, berenyo calls t2500
Flop:
(t8725) 6
A
9
(2 players)berenyo
checks,
Hero bets t5000,
berenyo raises to t29057 all in, Hero calls
t24057
Turn: (t66839) 5
(2 players -
1 is all in)River: (t66839) T
(2 players -
1 is all in)Final Pot: t66839
Hero
shows 6
6
(three of a kind, Sixes)
berenyo
shows 9
T
(two pair, Tens and Nines)
Hero wins
t66839
對手是疯狂的,當時的情況是8進7,這張桌和另一張桌兩個只有10000的
玩家都
已經失踪了,我其實可以不打也能拿入場劵,但我打的話只要避免與 Beuber 硬碰便不會有問題,即使輸給了 berenyo 我後面不打牌便行,相反
berenyo 如果打牌將冒出局的風險,如果他不打牌等其中一個少籌碼出局他已經是 100%
贏了,但是對手竟然打牌,還用中對推我,我心想我都已經拿 set 了,你如果這樣打我就成全你出局好了。
Poker Stars
$10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1500/t3000 Blinds + t300 - 8
players -
View hand 48028The Official
2+2 Hand Converter
Powered By DeucesCracked.comHero
(UTG+1): t7045 M = 1.02CASTLEMILK
(MP1): t4090 M = 0.59sawyer2591
(MP2): t8410 M = 1.22tignas62 (CO): t78242
M = 11.34
firefox18 (BTN): t24710 M =
3.58
BentzahAA (SB): t6655 M = 0.96
Turboman10r
(BB): t30129 M = 4.37
1keeper1 (UTG): t20219
M = 2.93
Pre Flop: (t6900) Hero is UTG+1
with Q
A
1 fold,
Hero raises to t6745 all in, CASTLEMILK calls t3790 all in,
sawyer2591 calls t6745,
3 folds, Turboman10r calls t3745
Flop:
(t27925) 9
3
4
(4 players -
2 are all in)Turboman10r checks,
sawyer2591
bets t1365 all in, Turboman10r folds
Turn:
(t27925) 2
(3 players -
3 are all in)River: (t27925) 6
(3 players -
3 are all in)Final Pot: t27925
Hero
shows Q
A
(high card Ace)
CASTLEMILK shows A
J
(high card Ace)
sawyer2591 shows K
K
(a pair of Kings)
sawyer2591 wins
t8865
sawyer2591 wins t19060
現在的情況出局者將在我和 Castlemilk 之間產生,如果我和
Castlemilk 一直不打至我們在 SB vs BB 時硬碰,誰勝誰負很難說(留意我在 BB 時將先扣 3000,所以到了 SB
時我和他的籌碼基本上差不多,誰輸了便會出局,這樣我是 50%
機會出局)這是我拿到一手還不錯的牌,我認為就算有人跟我機會還是不錯的,所以我推了,Castlemilk
可能心想也是時候和我決生死了,所以他也跟了,結果後面再跟個 KK,我和 Castlemilk 同時出局但我籌碼較多還是拿到入場劵。
至
於 sawyer2591 是否應該跟 KK 呢?問題是如果 Castlemilk 拿主
彩池、 我拿副彩池,他便極可能會出局,假設我和
Castlemilk 在這裡都是推 10% 的牌,KK贏其中一個將是 73%,出現「Castlemilk 拿主彩池、我拿副彩池」的機會便是
3.5%,加上他輸了這手還有可能翻身,我想跟也可以吧,但是如果 Castlemilk 並沒有跟,你認為 sawyer2591 是否應該跟 KK?