Leslie扑克和生活【牌局记录，分析，鞭策，警示】

minikoala

老大发话了~事情简单了
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spirit.dean

李哥～～运气只是暂时的，那些鱼会还回来的

LeslieLichaohui

+ W  J+ Y  V& R( o# v上10-20的满员桌看高档次的打牌，说是满员桌，其实也一般只有6个人左右。他们打的还是6max。的确不一样。bet，raise的size中规中矩，很少看到flop。turn和river更是少看见。要是真打起来了，一般都是牌撞上牌了，或者是概率差不多的对DU。可能“鱼”在这里，更是状态的意思，每个人都可能因为状态不好而“鱼”下。立刻就被人吃了，呵呵。很少看到有大“鱼”在桌子上，我相信“鱼”在这种大桌子上待不长。因为没有其他“鱼”被他吃，周围都是血腥的“鲨”。我也想成为其中的一条鲨鱼。......

2 c( C( b+ [* M9 @0 W2 W最近有些闷！网络上想打牌的欲望少很多！是因为：
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9 b: k5 Z. w9 B: m- F7 o一来，是因为最近不顺，怎么打怎么输，大概这个月要负盈利了。这个是半年多以来，各个网站包括ps，ip等转过来第一个在ftp上不赚钱的甚至要亏的月份。还有一周时间，要到5月。我不期望能赢，持平常心打完4月分最后一个周，能少输持平最好。
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二来，现场打的多了，自然平时时间就少了。我可能要平衡各种比如生活，家庭，朋友的关系和合理的分配时间。
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三来，关于打牌的进一步想法一直没有定型。不知道是不是因为最近不顺的关系。我觉得大概自己要有个突飞猛进的阶段了，呵呵。以前我打桥牌下围棋有技术大涨的阶段都是成绩停滞不前而各种想法却漫天飞舞的时候，这次不知道是不是这样。想法上想上个档次打牌，比如50NL，100NL，或者上6max，但是行动上却把自己降了一级，打起了NL10！靠，什么玩意！听了Jimizh的建议！

四来，最近看书比较多，打牌时间少了。看了slowhabit的《let there be range》前几页，就发现这是本好书，很符合我的胃口。扑克理念大概要随之更新了...。我的想法是这里边看边做笔记。

pangziding

顶你

LeslieLichaohui

A friendly Public Service Announcement for you all.
In poker we deal with EV, which simply translated means "betting our money when we are a mathematical favourite, and not betting when we aren't". We all know that when you are a 60/40 favourite, you should come out with the mad monies when the river is all said and done. Right?
  i# J% U1 i/ t1 N- k( r* E8 N  cWRONGGGGGG!
This may seem simple to most of you, but when we are talking equity edges in poker, they are very, VERY slim. What I mean by that is that one of the best edges you can have in poker (all in with AA versus AK preflop) is still only a 10:1 shot to hold up. That kind of edge is only offered to us VERY rarely in typical play. What we usually deal with are edges like holding a set versus a flush draw (a 3:1 edge) having our opponent draw to 3 outs (70:30). Edges of 60-65% are still very good and are more common.
What you need to realise is that when you hold an equity edge of 70%, you are a favourite, BUT if you were to play the situation 100 times, you are guaranteed to lose 30 times. If you talk about a 2:1 edge (a big edge in NLHE), if you run it 100 times, you are supposed to lose 33 times in addition to winning your 66 times.
My point is, if you get it all in with 70% equity and lose, then immediately think "I was a favourite. I was supposed to win that pot", you are seriously deluding yourself and you need to properly understand what it is to have an equity edge. An equity edge is NOT a golden stamp saying "Sup dude! Ship the monies!". It just doesn't work like that. A 60% edge means you win 60 times out of 100, and lose40 times out of 100. That’s right...40 times out of 100 you are mathematically destined to lose. We are all very happy when our edges hold up, but when we lose, how often do we say "oh well, 70% isn't a lock. You gotta lose those ones sometimes".
. E0 Z' T- J0 [, o6 PNEVER! We say "[censored] HELL 70% EQUITY WTF HOW DID I LOSE THAT WITH SUCH A HUGE [censored] EDGE JESUS I RUN SO BAD BLAERHGJHWKJEGHWEJKH" - right? Yes I'm right. Look how many stamps there are in the cheese thread.
SO.
3 n2 q1 p$ j- VConsider this new rule.
"The only time you can be truly justified in complaining about losing with an equity edge is if you had your opponent drawing dead on the turn and the dealer dealt a 6th card to give you opponent the best hand, and no-one said anything and the floor ruled that the 6th card was legal and there was nothing you could do about it"
or, more realistically,
  ?) Y' O" O4 k2 R2 q: K"You cant complain about losing with an equity edge in one specific hand, you can only complain about losing with an equity edge when mathematical variance has evened out. Given that nobody knows how long "long term" actually means, you can't really ever complain about losing with an equity edge".
Hopefully now you have a better understanding of what it means to be a "favourite" in an all in confrontation. Sometimes you don't just lose, sometimes you HAVE to lose.
Get it?

LeslieLichaohui

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我老是为badbeat感到痛心疾首！好像老天对我不公似的！看了原文翻译的。我觉得心里好收多了！


各位牌友，
# y1 l7 z) Z9 j) v1 x, _下文是为你们准备的一份友好的公告。
% r0 Y* s5 g. e. w咱们按照EV（期望值）来打牌，可以简单的理解为：“当咱们在数学上有利是下注，在相反的情况时不要下注”。咱们都知道，当你有60-40的胜率时，当河牌发下来后，你应该全下。对吗？
8 y7 u3 |: m/ [9 a, c大错特错
这对你们大多数人来说，可能看起来很简单，但是当咱们讨论扑克的期望值优势时，它们是非常非常渺茫的。我的意思是什么呢，就算你用最占优势的牌（在悬牌圈用AA全下，对手是AK），你的胜率仍然只有10:1。这样的优势，在咱们通常的牌局中很少会出现。咱们常常碰到的优势，比如暗三成牌对付有对手的有9张outs的(70:30)的同花抽牌（3:1的优势）。有 60-65%的优势已经大好了，并且也是很常见的。
' O2 s* u. s  Z2 u4 k: a4 i你需要再加注的牌，是你有70%优势的牌，但是如果你玩这类牌100次，你包管会输30次（概率问题）。如果你有2:1的优势（在无限扑克里这是很大的优势），如果你打这类牌100次，你概率理论上会输33次和赢66次。
我的观点是：如果你有70%的优势，全下但输了，你立刻会这样想：“我的打法是正确的，概率理论上我应该赢下这个彩池的”，你在严重的欺骗你自己，你需要正确理解有期望值优势到底是什么。期望值优势其实不能包管你一定能赢钱（此句翻译给意译了）！60%的优势意味着你100次里能赢60次，并且会在100次里输掉40次。真正的结论是，数学决定了你100次里会输掉40次。我在占有优势时很开心，但是当咱们输掉这类牌时，咱们是否会经常说：“噢，70%的优势不够保险，有时候咱们照旧会输”。 不会！咱们会说：“天哪，我有70%恁地巨大的期望值优势，我的运气真坏”——不是吗？看看论坛里有多少这类帖子。
所以
考虑一下新的规则。
唯一你在有期望值优势，但输掉牌局时，能正当抱怨的情况是：如果你的对手在河牌圈的抽牌已经失败了，但是发牌员发出了第6张牌，让你对手拿到了最强的牌，并且没有人对此有怨言言，并且第6张牌是符合规则的，你对此无能为力。（老外的幽默，意思是你任何情况都不能抱怨！）
- O% l4 F: V  G* y$ B2 a: E或者，更实际一点，
& ]! y5 ~1 p) E7 Z- K你不能对占期望值优势时输牌而抱怨，你只能抱怨数学要得期望值优势被扯平。因为没有人知道“持久”到底要多长，所以你不能对占期望值优势时的输牌抱怨。
但愿现在你对全下时的“优势”有更好的理解了。你不仅仅是有时候会输，而是有时候你必定会输。
懂了吗？

force_of_will

80# LeslieLichaohui
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1 c4 @9 Q( c) N" a+ z$ z' N. j  a2 a不太明白的是，为啥9max还要用44这种牌3bet，就这么喜欢打位置么。。这种习惯其实不太好，碰上有数据会打的牌手，你在中后位的3bet过高会遭遇到猛烈的4bet的。

force_of_will

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 626838
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG: $28.41
. g1 i6 C* q7 n- B2 A9 \% lUTG+1: $12.85
# T5 M: [* Q; i- IMP1: $34.86
: t$ E' M, c( QMP2: $56.11
* Q0 @  r3 ?) [+ f3 k3 ICO: $25.60
BT ...
LeslieLichaohui 发表于 2010-4-6 20:53

. l& Y0 r5 q( n" L喜欢打中筹码的，即使是老手，也是很鱼的老手。而且这里这人根本是鱼么，对付这种浅筹码，flop上被他raise只有all in和fold两种选择，没有call的余地。

force_of_will

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 627695
  }+ e4 Q. ^6 h. t( v/ ?The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
UTG+1: $22.47
" h9 D: K& `3 ~( ~/ j3 f& gMP1: $11.97
- {* w+ c( W+ H) ~, q8 \7 f' hMP2: $25.00
CO: $24.50
# ?& u( L) {* l4 v3 W7 q% c/ dBTN: $42.35
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, I- e* b; r% A* o3 nLeslieLichaohui 发表于 2010-4-7 11:18

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我觉得这个flop很湿，而且又有多家跟进，想在flop结束战斗基本是不可能了。3.5刀的pot打个2.5刀足够，然后转牌这张红心3已经很差了，台面有花有顺，只能check-call，如果river没有继续出红心，而对手依然继续bet了一个大于1/3 pot的注码还是fold了吧。

LeslieLichaohui

谢谢force of will

LeslieLichaohui

webmoney注册好了，存了10美元，然后取款！
10分钟后就到帐了，嘿嘿......
  I" V" _3 Y) ^! H, @  H明天找兑换商试试能否转到支付宝！

LeslieLichaohui

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 667263
. g% h$ P# C0 ?+ |: o7 v% _The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
CO: $25.00
: R. s# r5 H% Z) X; O! r" ?BTN: $43.00
SB: $26.55
( R7 q, {4 J( m# b# @6 S" O$ }. FBB: $25.00
; p: `; m& _# p# k: eHero (UTG): $37.08
8 @+ b" z5 A8 l9 q, h0 E% LUTG+1: $81.53
$ w+ q! e/ R" hUTG+2: $8.75
! r6 r2 ?3 A' ?- J& ]. bMP1: $8.40
MP2: $20.74
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
: }: w( e3 v. SHero calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $1.25, 2 folds, SB raises to $3.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, UTG+1 raises to $10, MP2 raises to $20.74 all in, 1 fold, Hero raises to $37.08 all in, UTG+1 calls $27.08
Flop: ($98.90) 7 4 6
9 t- X4 l8 h" l* d8 N! m" cTurn: ($98.90) 8
River: ($98.90) T
Final Pot: $98.90
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
UTG+1 shows K K (a pair of Kings)
% {; d* p+ y  m6 _" KMP2 shows Q Q (a pair of Queens)
Hero wins $32.68
/ _+ R/ W) ]4 y+ M5 V7 l4 u. FHero wins $63.22
(Rake: $3.00)

我开心啊！！哈哈.......

force_of_will

我上次AA玩潜伏的时候，对手一家AA，一家**，一家77，翻牌前他们推来推去我只call，4家最后翻牌前all in了，发了张7，最小的卷了大pot...

LeslieLichaohui

X = Breakeven Folding Frequency
P = Current Size of the Pot
% V+ t' _8 }6 e1 Z2 o2 dL = Maximum Loss
! ~' L: s! i5 VW = Maximum Gain
* E. x3 h- p1 a: dV = Villain's Equity
H = Hero's Equity
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0 = XP + (1 - X)(-LV + WH)